The Rise of the Aam
Admi Party (AAP) in the recent 2013 Indian assembly elections
The Assembly elections of Delhi held last week has seen a
resounding defeat of the dominant Congress party - a party that had ruled the national
capital of India for the last three consecutive terms and the country for over
48 years. The triumph of the AAP, a party unknown till last year, which came a
close second after the dominant opposition party, the Bhartia Janta Dal, is a
reflection of the voting clout of the new youth centric middle class. This
group is not related to the old traditional middle class families of Delhi who over
time and through generations, have captured all the exorbitantly priced real
estate in Delhi. This elite group has traditionally had access to the ruling
class via family links or membership to British style clubs such as the
Gymkhana and the India International Center. Then there is the government class
which depends on the largesse and goodwill of the politicians and so is often reluctant
to upset the establishment. Both these groups have been the traditional power
base on which the fortunes of the congress party have rested since the now
deceased Prime Minister Indira Gandhi converted the party into a family based
enterprise.
The new middle class supporting AAP which is similar across
urban centers in India, is educated, and has migrated from smaller cities
purely on the basis of its merit and professional skills. This group is based
in the trans- Jamuna suburbs and beyond, where real estate is affordable but
increasingly distant because of traffic gridlock, from the employment hub of
central Delhi. This new Delhite is also frustrated
with the lack of access to the power structures of India that comes so easily
to the old time residents of the city. Traditional politics and political
parties are in the control of dynastic families and their cohorts or tribal
caste based rulers whose goals and morality are different from the new urban
class. The increasing corruption that continues to transfer wealth to power
brokers, has disgusted the new Delhites as access to essential resources like
water and electricity are impacted. A house in the upper class neighborhoods of
central Delhi such as Jorbagh and Defence colony means no power cuts and water
shortages while living in Patparganj where the AAP won with a huge majority,
means a few hours of municipal water supply and electricity. Most people in
these and other outer suburbs depend on generators and water tanks to ensure a
regular supply. The outlying colonies of Noida, Gurgoan and Faridabad that are
no longer in Delhi’s municipal limits, and have crept into the neighboring
states of Uttar Pradesh and Haryana, have it even worse. The power brokers in
these states are even more brazen in bartering access to power and wealth along
tribal and family lines.
In the buildup to the current elections, many other groups
in Delhi have expressed disgust with the deteriorating infrastructure and the
distribution of public utilities, and have shown a willingness to support “anti-establishment”
parties like AAP. The poorest of the poor who serve the middle class and lives
in unauthorized colonies surrounding New Delhi, have access to no running water
and electricity unless they are creative enough to steal it from regular
sources. They also live under a constant threat of removal and resettlement to
the outskirts of Delhi from where it is inordinately expensive to travel to the
homes they serve. Even the traditional elite of Delhi which routinely voted for
the Congress has in recent years, maybe in a desire to stand shoulder to shoulder
with their western counterparts, expressed disgust with the Congress party and
with business as usual.
The downside to the ascendency of this new class of leadership
and its supporters is their unreliability and attention span to things “political”
towards which they have traditionally expressed disgust. Lacking family sources
of income on which they can fall back, this group has to work hard to maintain
their middle class lifestyles in an expensive city like Delhi. Many of those
who have come to volunteer for the AAP are shop-keepers or run independent businesses
which can only survive a short-term absence of the owner. Besides a shared
desire for transparency and accountability in governance, the members of AAP
lack any ideological basis for coming together. The lone social scientist among
their ranks has stitched together a 70 point manifesto with its central focus
on anti- corruption, by way of the “Jan
lockpal” bill which allows people to bring down corrupt politicians and
officials via citizen committees. Other
points include inflation reduction, access to resources, and transparency in
government functioning. What the manifesto lacks is theoretical grounding which
can makes it palatable over the long range despite its shortcomings.
The romance of belonging to a protest movement can unfortunately
soon run out when the time comes for the nitty-gritty of governance. The
exaggerated and populist natures of the promises made during a brutal campaign,
have made the realization of these goals problematic. This is especially significant given the time
bound deadline the AAP members have imposed upon themselves during the hurly
burly of political campaigning. Many of the followers of the party never dreamt
that they could be in a position to form a government. Lacking experience and given their professed
repugnance to negotiate with established parties, makes it hard for them to
rise up to the challenge. Reducing the cost of electricity by half and
providing free water for all Delhites, both campaign promises put forth by AAP,
is near impossible given Delhi’s rapidly expanding population, limited fresh
water resources, high inflation and the free falling value of the Indian rupee.
So, sadly we continue to hear sloganeering from AAP cadres about how they came
into politics to reform and not govern which then begs the question of what
will be the challenge of reform in the absence of any desire to implement such
reforms.
The traditional parties which include the two dominant
players, the BJP and the Congress are naturally exploiting the reluctance of
the AAP to take over the reins. They are
also indirectly encouraging the AAP to push for a new assembly election in
Delhi where they hope to discredit the new party prior to the oncoming national
elections of 2014. The AAP aware of the danger of exaggerated expectations and
the display of bickering inevitable in any immature new party, is refusing to
take on the challenge to form a government despite offers of support from their
erstwhile rivals. The deadlock continues but having lost the opportunity to
take on the challenge posed by those they defeated, AAP now
faces the danger of being discredited
prior to achieving their ultimate goal of launching a national party in
time for the 2014 elections.
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